Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 3:37 PM
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI
Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a s...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:23 AM
The jobs number came in at 303k this morning versus a median forecast of 200k. Previous month revisions added a minimal 22k to the 3 month total and ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report
It was a surprisingly an...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 12:02 PM
Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples. It's similar in the sense that there was some ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 4:06 PM
Carbon Copy Day For MBS
The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was str...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 11:38 AM
Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning. Overnight weakness was ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 4:00 PM
Technical Breakout in Treasuries. Does it Matter?
Bonds began the day in much weaker territory as Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:27 AM
Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments. In general, there was some optimism headin...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
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