Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:25 PM
Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's imp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 11:00 AM
“My dad always said to me, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number’ so I did. Account balance: $9.11.” You can work harder, or you can...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 4:08 PM
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away--at least as far as the first two business days were...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:03 AM
“Affordable” means many things. There are residential lending industry jokes about making a loan on anything with axles or a license plate. (Like “don...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 9:01 AM
Mortgage activity took the usual hit over the last two weeks as the country celebrated a variety of religious and secular holidays. The Mortgage Broke...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates kicked off the new year by jumping to the highest levels since December 13th. That's not too remarkable considering rates were also at...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 10:28 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:10 PM
Looking back at October when 30yr fixed mortgage rates were over 8%, a return to the roughly unchanged levels by the end of the year may have seemed l...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 11:35 AM
“What do you call a gal who’s had too much to drink? A cab.” Of course, anyone who’s been drinking should stay away from California’s 40-foot waves. D...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 11:28 AM
VA loans have majorly streamlined since a decade ago. The minimal red tape that remains is often justified; VA seeks to protect its veterans. For the...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 9:59 AM
Today's abbreviated session (early close at 2pm ET) is already being dominated by year-end trading. With December marking the best month in 15 years ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 5:18 PM
Random Bounce Back After Random Rally
Bonds failed to do anything remarkable on Thursday as the random stren...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Yesterday was the most interesting day of the past 2 weeks, but that's not saying much. The past 2 weeks have been the calmest for mortgage rates in ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 3:15 PM
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases two widely followed home sales reports. Existing Home Sales measure transactions of homes other t...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 12:34 PM
Wednesday's session saw the only meaningful movement of the past two weeks. Now Thursday is pushing back modestly, thus keeping the sleepy, year-end ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 10:54 AM
If someone reports their company for tax evasion in the U.S., he or she will receive 30 percent of the amount collected. Have you ever loaned someone ...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:10 PM
The most notable accomplishment for mortgage rates today was the fact that they moved by a normal amount compared to the previous day. That's the fir...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year
On many of the recent days with a simila...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 12:36 PM
If an average trading day is a 5 on a 1-10 scale, yesterday (Tuesday) would have been a 1 in terms of volume and liquidity. Today's number would only...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Susan Toste writes to Ira Selwin who sends me (see how these things work?), “Can you believe it is 364 days until Christmas and people already have th...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
Quietest Trading Day of The Year
We've seen other days this year where bonds have traded in a similarly narr...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 10:55 AM
The bond market is technically fully open today, but only due to the unspoken convention regarding 4 day weekends. Specifically, bonds are never clos...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 10:43 AM
Did you receive any SM under the tree this weekend? Call it snail mucus, or snail mucin, it’s all the same to me, which, as a kid, represented a trail...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:26 PM
Early Close and a 3-Day Weekend
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:22 PM
The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them ...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 12:11 PM
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest volatility this morning, but it only lasted for 30 minutes. After that, ...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 11:38 AM
“If you know someone who has an intense fear of store Santas, would you say they were suffering from Claus-trophobia?” For individuals or companies, d...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:52 PM
I like to write at least a small amount every day to recap mortgage rate movement. After all, they change every day by at least some small amount and...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Was The Fed Pivot a Surprise?
There's been quite a bit of discussion in the news and on MBS Live surrounding...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 12:53 PM
Yesterday's trading session saw bonds improve in the afternoon despite a complete absence of overt justifications. That's not to say they don't exist...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 10:43 AM
“What do you call a Christmas wreath made out of $100 bills? Aretha Franklins.” It’s cutting-edge humor like this that keeps readers coming back for m...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:24 PM
We made the mistake of referring to mortgage rates as being "sharply sideways" yesterday--a description that's only dusted off for the most uneventful...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:23 PM
Surprisingly Strong Day Leaves Yields at Fresh Lows
Nothing good happened for the bond market today--at leas...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 12:34 PM
Bonds were stronger in the overnight session with an infusion of buying demand following weaker UK inflation data. This brought 10yr yields into U.S....
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 10:39 AM
Here’s what happened when a company relied on forecasts and rate predictions during late 2022 for its business in 2023. You’d have a come-apart! Speak...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 7:00 AM
The Thanksgiving holiday was followed by two strong weeks for mortgage applications, especially for refinancing, as mortgage rates fell. This past wee...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:56 PM
When is interest rate momentum flatter than you can possibly imagine? Today. We only break out the sarcastic and paradoxical juxtaposition of "sharp...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:19 PM
Late December Sticking to The Script
The baseline is "boring" when it comes to Thanksgiving week and the ...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 12:46 PM
Housing starts, which had risen modestly in September and October, soared last month, topping 1.5 million units for the first time in 2023 . The U.S....
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 11:28 AM
Can you sense the analytical excitement that pervades MBS commentary posts in the 2nd half of December?
It's not that we don't see flat trading at o...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 10:56 AM
Change is constant: How ‘bout U.S. Steel, the Pittsburgh steel producer that played a key role in the nation’s industrialization, being acquired by Ni...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:08 PM
As of last Thursday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was a few days away from being able to claim an official "7 month low," and that's ...
